New Zealand’s Golden Visa: Capital Migration as a Hedge
In September, the phrase “golden visa” has re-entered investor vocabulary with fresh weight. Far from a lifestyle perk, it has become a strategic allocation tool. New Zealand’s Active Investor Plus regime, refreshed in April, is now drawing interest from family offices and global fund managers who are reassessing where capital can be safely anchored.
This is not just about immigration. It is about risk management. In a world where US fiscal debates remain unresolved, Europe’s growth is uneven, and Asia’s largest economy is still battling a property hangover, the ability to secure residency in a stable jurisdiction through productive investment looks like a premium option.
At Fairhaven, we see this development as part of a wider rotation. Wealth that once flowed into equities, credit, or speculative property markets is moving into real assets with demographic demand and policy alignment. The golden visa is the signal, but the real story is where the capital is going, and what kinds of investors are driving the shift.
This month’s edition covers:
What changed in New Zealand’s Active Investor Plus visa settings in 2025
Who is applying and why US family offices are at the front of the queue
Where the capital is being deployed, from healthcare to build-to-rent
How New Zealand’s macro environment is stabilising while the world wobbles
Why this matters for investors seeking both safety and compounding returns
1. A New Chapter in Capital Migration
For decades, the idea of a “golden visa” has sat at the margins of global capital flows. It was seen as a perk for wealthy individuals, a lifestyle upgrade rather than a serious allocation strategy. That perception is changing.
Today, these programmes are being reassessed not as luxuries, but as hedges. The world’s wealthiest families are no longer simply seeking return; they are seeking refuge. Political uncertainty in the United States, prolonged stagnation in Europe, and financial fragility in China are reframing the conversation. The question is no longer just where can capital grow, but where can it be safely anchored.
New Zealand’s Active Investor Plus visa sits at this intersection. It is not a volume product, nor is it designed for speculation. With high thresholds and clear conditions, it signals that only capital with genuine commitment and long-term orientation will find a home here. For investors, that scarcity is part of the appeal.
This reframing of migration-linked investment as a defensive, institutional-grade strategy is the backdrop for this month’s report. It is less about passports and more about positioning: who is using these visas, where their capital is going, and what that means for the next phase of New Zealand’s market cycle.
2. The Active Investor Plus “Golden Visa”: Where It Came From and Where It Stands Now
History and purpose
New Zealand replaced the old Investor 1 and Investor 2 categories in September 2022 with the Active Investor Plus (AIP) visa. The aim was simple: modernise the regime, reduce friction for globally mobile capital, and tilt investment toward productive assets rather than passive holdings. The legacy scheme carried stricter residency and English requirements and was losing ground to competing jurisdictions. AIP set a clearer pathway with transparent investment tests and lighter residence rules, while preserving quality thresholds and fit-and-proper screening.
What changed in 2025
The two tracks at a glance:
Growth
Minimum investment: NZD 5 million
Holding period: 3 years
Presence: about 21 days in New Zealand across those 3 years
Balanced
Minimum investment: NZD 10 million
Holding period: 5 years
Presence: about 105 days in New Zealand across those 5 years
Flexibility: presence days can be reduced if a larger share is in Growth-type assets
In both tracks, funds must remain invested for the full term and applicants must evidence compliance at set checkpoints.
What counts as an “acceptable investment”
The regime favours productive capital. Direct investments into operating businesses, private equity or venture funds, and approved managed funds qualify. Certain property development exposures can qualify if structured appropriately. Purely passive residential property does not qualify in its own right, unless accessed via an approved vehicle that meets the policy’s productivity intent. The policy is designed to channel capital into growth, jobs, and innovation, not speculation.
Uptake and who is applying
As at 31 August 2025, applications under the refreshed settings totalled in the low hundreds, representing roughly a thousand people when including family members. A meaningful share have already received approval in principle, with granted resident visas growing as investments are placed. The United States is the largest source country, followed by applicants from China, Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan and others. The headline message is that interest is broadening and the pipeline is real.
The property question
A current policy refinement allows AIP holders to purchase or build one high-value home of at least NZD 5 million in designated high-end segments. It is a narrow carve-out from the foreign-buyer ban and is intended to remain tightly targeted, affecting a very small slice of the housing stock. For investors, the practical takeaway is that lifestyle and settlement decisions can now be integrated with an AIP strategy, without diluting the programme’s focus on productive investment.
What applicants still need to get right
Physical presence: Plan travel early to meet the day-count requirement for your chosen track.
Investment retention: Capital must stay deployed for the full 3 or 5 years, with documentation at milestones. Build liquidity buffers.
Instrument choice: Not all property-linked assets qualify. Ensure structures and managers are on the approved lists and consistent with the policy’s intent.
Execution timeline: “Approval in principle” is an important step, but you still need to complete due diligence, transfer funds, and lodge evidence on time.
Why this matters for our strategy
The reset makes New Zealand more competitive for global families that want a rules-based, low-volatility jurisdiction, modest presence requirements, and a pathway that rewards genuine, productive capital. For allocators, it also aligns neatly with sectors where New Zealand has structural need and clear visibility of cash flows, including student accommodation, aged care, and core logistics. That intersection of policy and market demand is where we focus deployment.
3. Who Is Using the Visa, Where Capital Is Flowing, and Why It Matters
The Active Investor Plus Visa has shifted from an experiment into a functioning channel for capital migration. It is attracting a very specific profile of applicant: mid-career or later, globally mobile, and already diversified across multiple jurisdictions. For these individuals, New Zealand is not just a lifestyle choice. It is a hedge against volatility elsewhere, a jurisdiction that promises regulatory certainty, clean capital pathways, and the ability to establish a long-term foothold without heavy residency burdens.
Investor Profiles Emerging
Among the strongest cohort are US family offices and technology founders. Their interest is pragmatic: straightforward residency steps, access to education for dependents, and an operating footprint that can be scaled up if needed. Their allocations typically blend managed fund investments with a small direct stake in a local operating business, a structure that offers both compliance and flexibility.
North Asian applicants represent another distinct group. Wealth that was previously tied up in property-heavy domestic portfolios is diversifying abroad. The focus here is not on running businesses directly but on capital preservation. These investors seek institutional custody, trusted managers, and exposure to regulated, income-backed assets that can be held securely for the long term.
In parallel, we are seeing APAC entrepreneurs whose priority is optionality. Many run operating teams in Singapore, Sydney, or Hong Kong but want New Zealand as a secondary base. The appeal is the modest time-in-country requirement paired with the ability to maintain global operations without disruption.
Where the Capital Is Flowing
The flow of funds reflects both policy design and investor psychology. Managed fund sleeves remain the most common entry point because they allow applicants to meet thresholds quickly. Yet the real traction is in adjacencies that sit within the “acceptable investment” framework. Healthcare platforms, purpose-built student accommodation, and build-to-rent development entities are drawing attention because they provide compliance, clear demand drivers, and scalable structures.
Productive operating businesses also feature. Tech-enabled services, agritech ventures, and export-processing companies have become attractive because they not only satisfy visa requirements but also offer growth upside. For many applicants, these allocations are designed at a minimum scale, with the option to expand once residency is secured.
Why New Zealand Is Attracting Capital Now
Three drivers stand out. First is policy clarity. The separation into Growth and Balanced categories gives investors a predictable framework with clear holding periods and day-count requirements. Second is risk recalibration. In an environment where many jurisdictions shift rules mid-cycle, a country that delivers on its stated policy is perceived as premium. Third is the FX entry point. The softer NZD makes initial allocations more attractive and offers a natural tailwind when repatriating gains in stronger currencies.
Implications for Property Markets
The effects are already visible in sectors tied to demographic demand. Student accommodation is a prime beneficiary, with international arrivals lifting occupancy and compliant investment structures channelling capital into PBSA platforms rather than passive apartments. Healthcare and aged care assets are also attracting Growth-category allocations, as they can demonstrate job creation and measurable social benefit. Meanwhile, build-to-rent models are gaining momentum by enabling investors to back the development engine and operating company, which leads to professionalised housing stock and more stable tenancy profiles.
The Fairhaven View
This is a policy window that aligns closely with our thesis. The visa is not a free pass to invest in anything at any price. It is a framework that rewards well-structured, income-backed exposures that would stand on their own merits even without the visa. Done correctly, applicants achieve two outcomes simultaneously: a residency pathway and a portfolio of assets that compound through the cycle.
4. Global Events and Domestic Signals
Global backdrop: Uncertainty Breeds Opportunity
Markets are still digesting three big currents.
Asia policy and geopolitics. A recent Asia Times analysis argued the long-promised US “pivot to Asia” never truly materialised. Washington stayed focused on the Middle East, while China cemented itself as the region’s anchor. For investors, this reinforces the need to discount great-power strategy and focus on markets with predictable rules.
China’s property overhang. The ongoing restructurings of major developers highlight a prolonged property slowdown and tighter offshore funding. This has accelerated wealth diversification into safer jurisdictions.
Japan’s rising yields. The Bank of Japan’s shift to higher rates has unsettled global bond markets. Term premia are lifting, and volatility is spilling into other sovereign curves.
These conditions push globally mobile capital to seek smaller markets with policy clarity, low political volatility, and consistent follow-through. New Zealand, via the Active Investor Plus Visa, now offers exactly that: a premium entry point backed by clear settings.
New Zealand now: latest data, what it signals, and where it points capital
Monetary policy (cost of capital).
The Reserve Bank cut the OCR to 3.0% in August 2025, its first move lower in two years. The market and private forecasters expect a gradual easing cycle over the next 12 months, with the OCR projected to reach 2.5% by mid 2026. This will reduce funding costs, support cap rate compression, and restore feasibility for development.
Inflation (real yield protection).
CPI sat at 2.7 percent year to June 2025 (up 0.5 percent from the previous quarter). Food remains sticky at +5 percent year on year, while rent inflation has dropped to its lowest level in 14 years. Inflation within the 1–3 percent target band means income assets retain their real value, a critical consideration for long-horizon capital.
Growth (out of recession, shallow upswing).
GDP grew 0.8 percent in the March 2025 quarter, offsetting an annual decline of 1.1 percent. This indicates New Zealand is emerging from a shallow recession. Forecasts from NZIER project 1.5 percent GDP growth in the year to March 2026, with further strengthening expected in 2027. Investors see this not as a boom, but as steady footing to anchor capital.
Labour market (demand cooling, cost pressure easing).
Unemployment rose to 5.2 percent in June 2025. Wage growth has slowed in line with the weaker labour market, which has reduced operating cost risk for asset managers and reinforced inflation stability.
Migration and population flows (demand mix).
Net migration has cooled. In the year to July 2025, provisional net inflows were 13.1k, down from 63.6k a year earlier. More citizens are departing, especially to Australia. For mass-market housing this is a headwind, but for institutional sectors like student accommodation, aged care, and build-to-rent, demand drivers are more structural and less sensitive to these shifts.
Building pipeline (supply adjustment).
Building consents show signs of bottoming. In July 2025, 3,252 dwellings were consented, up 5.4 percent month on month but still down 3.0 percent year on year. Annual totals hover around 33.9k dwellings, implying net additions are slowing. This supports the outlook for stabilising vacancies and firmer rents by 2026.
Housing market (prices and volumes).
The REINZ House Price Index was essentially flat in August 2025, up 0.1 percent year on year. Sales volumes remain subdued, and Reuters reported a 1.3 percent fall in median prices month on month in August. Sentiment is weak in the mass market, but high-value stock, particularly in Auckland and Queenstown, shows resilience due to limited supply and discretionary sellers.
The Fairhaven View
Lower interest rates, contained inflation, and a stabilising growth outlook create the right conditions for income-backed, institutional themes. Student accommodation remains underpinned by international arrivals, aged care by demographics, and build-to-rent by professionalised rental demand. For AIP investors, these are exactly the productive assets policy is designed to reward. Residency goals and portfolio outcomes can be pursued together, with lower volatility than competing jurisdictions.
5. Outlook and Forward Considerations: 2026 and Beyond
Stability in an Uncertain World
The global landscape remains unsettled. Investors are watching the United States wrestle with fiscal strain and an approaching election cycle, while Europe grapples with patchy growth and regulatory friction. Asia is no less turbulent, with China’s property malaise weighing on sentiment and Japan’s higher yields rippling through global bond markets. For allocators, these dynamics do not just create risk, they also create fatigue. The appeal of smaller, rules-based economies like New Zealand grows stronger precisely because the larger economies feel more unpredictable.
New Zealand’s Path: Slow but Steady
In contrast, New Zealand is positioning itself for a period of stability. The Reserve Bank’s decision to cut the OCR to 3.0 percent in August 2025, its first move in two years, marks the start of an easing cycle expected to take rates toward 2.5 percent by mid-2026. Inflation, now at 2.7 percent year to June 2025, sits within the target band, while wage and rent pressures are easing. GDP data show that the economy has emerged from a shallow recession, with forecasts pointing to ~1.5 percent growth in the year to March 2026 and firmer gains beyond.
This trajectory is not dramatic, but it is dependable. It suggests an environment where borrowing costs will gradually fall, real yields are preserved, and capital can be allocated with greater confidence. For global investors tired of policy surprises, that predictability is a premium in itself.
Real Estate: Anchored in Fundamentals
The property market reflects this cautious optimism. Mass-market housing remains subdued due to affordability constraints and slower net migration, yet institutional and high-value segments are stabilising. Building consents are trending lower, with 33.9k dwellings consented in the year to July 2025, meaning supply growth is slowing just as financing costs ease. The REINZ House Price Index is flat to slightly positive, and although volumes remain low, resilience in high-value areas like Auckland and Queenstown underlines the depth of demand in select niches.
Key sectors continue to demonstrate structural demand:
Student accommodation remains buoyed by the return of international enrolments, pushing occupancy higher even as broader housing demand softens.
Healthcare and aged care assets are underpinned by demographics, with operators seeking capital partners for capacity expansion.
Build-to-rent models are gaining traction in Auckland and Wellington, offering more professionalised rental supply and multi-year tenancy stability.
Connecting Outlook to Opportunity
What emerges is a consistent picture: while the global stage is volatile, New Zealand is entering a phase of modest but durable growth. For investors, this means a market where long-term capital is not just preserved but positioned to compound. Lower rates, contained inflation, and steady demand drivers align neatly with sectors designed to withstand cycles.
6. Featured Listings: Strategic Entry Points in a Stabilising Market
As New Zealand positions for a slow but steady recovery, investors are increasingly looking for assets that combine reliable cash flow with flexible upside. The following three listings illustrate how macro stability translates into live, institutional-grade opportunities across hospitality, retail, and industrial sectors.
Below are three listings we believe represent institutional-grade potential in the current cycle:
1. Auckland – Boutique Hotel / Apartments
Asking Price: NZD 24.75 million
Asset Type: Mixed-Use | 62 apartments + 64 car parks (individually titled)
Net Yield: ~7.0%–8.0%
Net Operating Income: ~NZD 1.7M–2.0M
Tenure: Freehold
Nearby Demand Drivers: Auckland education hub, transport links, suburban regeneration
Notes:
Currently operated as a boutique hotel, this Avondale-located block offers flexibility through multiple exit strategies. All apartments are individually titled, enabling staged resale, while conversion into student accommodation could capture rising international enrollment demand.
Investment Potential:
Net Yield: ~7.0%–8.0%
Gross Sell-Down Scenario: ~NZD 32.5M (at ~NZD 525k/unit)
Student Accommodation Conversion: Potential for higher occupancy stability and institutional-grade yield
Leveraged IRR (5-Year Hold): ~18–20% (illustrative)
Equity Multiple: ~2.0x+
Exit Strategy: Flexible sell-down, student housing, or hybrid hold
Key Advantage: Optionality, cash yield plus capital growth pathways
2. Auckland – Aged Care Facility
Estimated Price: NZD 28.0–30.0 million
Asset Type: Aged Residential Care | ~250 beds (rest home, hospital, dementia)
Net Yield: ~6.5%–7.5%
Net Operating Income: ~NZD 1.8M–2.2M
Tenure: Freehold | Long-term triple-net leases to established operator
Nearby Demand Drivers: Ageing population, government-backed subsidies, undersupply of aged-care beds
Notes:
A substantial aged-care portfolio positioned to meet New Zealand’s accelerating demographic demand. Facilities are leased to an experienced operator under secure, long-term agreements, providing stable income while aligning with ESG and healthcare-linked investment themes.
Investment Potential:
Net Yield: ~6.5%–7.5%
NOI: ~NZD 1.8M–2.2M
Blended Total Return Estimate: ~19–21%
Leveraged IRR (5-Year Hold): ~17–19% (illustrative)
Equity Multiple: ~2.2x+
Exit Strategy: Institutional roll-up or specialist aged-care fund acquisition
Key Advantage: Defensive sector, demographic tailwinds, government-supported revenue
3. Queenstown – Retail Centre
Rated Valuation (RV): NZD 59.5 million
Asset Type: Prime Retail | Multi-tenanted centre
Net Yield: ~6.0%
Net Operating Income: ~NZD 3.3M
Land Size: ~3,285 m²
Built-Up Area: ~4,800 m²
Nearby Demand Drivers: International tourism, resort economy, luxury residential growth
Notes:
Located in New Zealand’s most iconic tourist hub, this retail centre benefits from Queenstown’s premium catchment and strong long-term visitor flows. With tourism continuing to rebound and local high-end housing development expanding, the asset is positioned for resilient footfall and steady rental recovery.
Investment Potential:
Net Yield: ~6.0%
NOI: ~NZD 3.3M
Occupancy: ~80%, with leasing upside
Capital Growth Assumption: ~5% p.a. (Queenstown retail historically above national averages)
Leveraged IRR (5-Year Hold): ~16–18% (illustrative)
Exit Strategy: Institutional roll-up, long-term retail REIT target
Key Advantage: Premium location, tourism-driven demand, limited new retail supply
4. Manukau City – Industrial Building
Rated Valuation (RV): NZD 37.0 million
Asset Type: Industrial | Large-scale logistics/warehouse
Net Yield: ~6.0%–7.0%
Net Operating Income: ~NZD 2.2M–2.6M
Land Size: ~3.92 ha
Built-Up Area: ~14,208 m²
Nearby Demand Drivers: South Auckland logistics hub, motorway access, population growth corridor
Notes:
This large industrial facility sits at the heart of Manukau’s logistics and distribution belt, an area experiencing sustained demand from e-commerce and supply-chain operators. With occupancy at ~90%, the asset provides reliable income with scope for yield compression as OCR cuts filter through.
Investment Potential:
Net Yield: ~6.0%–7.0%
NOI: ~NZD 2.2M–2.6M
Occupancy: ~90%
Leveraged IRR (5-Year Hold): ~17–19% (illustrative)
Exit Strategy: Long-term hold or institutional acquisition
Key Advantage: Defensive sector, supply-constrained location, scale suitable for institutional buyers
Want to discuss any of these opportunities further? Reach out to our team directly:
Contact Information :
Petrus Yen
Petrus@fairhavenproperty.co.nz
Daarshan Kunasegaran
Daarshan.Kunasegaran@fairhavenproperty.co.nz
Disclaimer:
The property details, financial figures, and projections provided in this article are based on publicly available information and internal estimates as of September 2025. They are intended for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial advice or an offer to invest. Projections such as IRR and equity multiples are indicative only and subject to change based on market conditions, financing terms, and execution strategy. Interested parties should conduct independent due diligence and consult with a qualified advisor before making any investment decisions. Fairhaven Property Group accepts no liability for decisions made based on the information presented herein.
